We’re going to take a shot at projecting the Phillies top ten prospects as ranked by Baseball America, who will unveil their Phillies rankings on Monday. First, a few quick notes on guys that were in the top ten last year that will not be there this year:

• Four of the top ten (Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald) were traded to the Indians in the Cliff Lee deal in July. So obviously they’re out.
• JA Happ was eligible as a prospect last year but is no longer eligible this year after going 12-4. He’s a front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year.
• Last year: 1. Domonic Brown, 2. Carlos Carrasco, 3. Marson, 4. Donald, 5. Kyle Drabek, 6. Michael Taylor, 7. Travis d’Arnaud, 8. Zach Collier, 9. Happ, 10. Knapp, full top 30

So, who are the big movers this year?

• Anthony Gose led all of MiLB in steals and was voted the most exciting prospect in the SAL at age 18 (until August 10th).
• Trevor May was a 4th round pick last year who missed some time in the spring with a back injury. He allowed three earned runs in his last 37 innings with Lakewood and was virtually unhittable at the end of the sesason.
• Sebastian Valle didn’t hit that well first go-around with Lakewood, but was 18, catching two days a week, and mostly DHing. When he went to Williamsport, he was outstanding.
• BJ Rosenberg wasn’t even ranked in the top 30 last year but pitched to an ERA just north of 1 between Lakewood and Reading. One of the rare ones to double-jump and skip Hi-A.
• See a trend? All were key factors on the 2009 SAL Championship BlueClaws club.
• Also should mention Drabek, who was outstanding in his first year after Tommy John Surgery.

Other notes…

• On a media/broadcaster survey done by the Reading Eagle, Brown, Taylor, and Drabek were 1-2-3 in some order on all ballots. It is impossible to forecast anyone else in the top three when the list comes out tomorrow.
• This system was ranked 12th last year by Baseball America…should be higher this year (the top three are all arguably top 30 prospects). And that’s despite trading away four of their better prospects for Cliff Lee.

Onto the projections (this is how we think Baseball America will rank them)…

1. Domonic Brown: missed some time with a finger injury this year, but hit about .285 between Clearwater and Reading at 21 (turned 22 on 9/3). He topped the list last year, no reason to think he won’t again this year.
2. Kyle Drabek: Putting a premium on high level starting pitching. There are only so many potential aces in this game and they’re so valuable. Drabek produced at Clearwater and at Reading and will be 22 on Opening Day.
3. Michael Taylor: Hard to believe he hit .227 in his rookie campaign with Williamsport (2007). All logic says that he will be in the big leagues at some point in 2010 after hitting 20 home runs between Reading and Lehigh Valley.
4. Travis d’Arnaud: Just 20, he didn’t let a .200 first half get to him, had 29 doubles in the second half and got stronger as the year went on playing a demanding position. Trade of Marson confirms him as catcher of the future in the organization and has power to all fields.
5. Trevor May: Again, a premium on pitchers. Big, strong 6-5 righty will have to cut down on his walks but a lot of that was early in the year and he fanned 11 per nine at 19 in the Sally. Takes Knapp’s place as the system’s next big pitching prospect.
6. Anthony Gose: 76 stolen bases speak for themselves. But I thought the best thing that anyone said about Gose was Dusty Wathan’s comment that after the game “You don’t know if he went 0-4 or 4-4.” He’s incredibly poised and already a great defensive player.
7. Sebastian Valle: Might be a little bit of a stretch but realize his early struggles in Lakewood came when he was catching two days a week and primarily the DH. He hit .315 catching every day at Williamsport and just learned the position a few years ago. He’s 19 and will likely be Lakewood’s Opening Day catcher this year.
8. Brody Colvin: Baseball America had him in their top 50 among draft picks last year. The Phillies took him in the 7th round and signed him away from LSU. I’ve never seen him. He’s only thrown one game as a pro. Have heard good things…Note that he’s here because I think Baseball America will put him here. Looking forward to possibly seeing him in Lakewood this season.
9. Antonio Bastardo: 24 year old went 2-2, 1.75 with Reading, his primary spot, but was called up and to Philly and was on the playoff roster for all three rounds this year. Still a little green as he was with Lakewood in 2007, when he went 9-0.
10. Yohan Flande: Lefty went 4-4 with Reading and his strikeouts dropped 7.4 - 6.4 from his time at Clearwater. But he made the Futures Game in his second year in this country. Is just 23. Still upside here.
11. BJ Rosenberg: Bonus pick, was him or Flande. Rosenberg fanned 11 per nine w/ Lakewood and 7 per w/ Reading. But he was basically unhittable with the BlueClaws. Have to figure that he could be in AAA this year and in the bigs not too much after that. He’s 24.

There you go.

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This entry was posted on Sunday, November 8th, 2009 at 2:57 pm and is filed under Around the Farm, Baseball America, Past BlueClaws. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.