Q&A: Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com
Thanks to Jonathan Mayo of MiLB.com (blog here, Twitter here) for taking some time to answer a few questions for BlueClaws Blog about the recent MiLB.com top 50 prospects, which featured several former BlueClaws (14 Domonic Brown, 17 Kyle Drabek, 35 Michael Taylor).
Without further adieu…
Q: First, what was the basic criteria in selecting prospects? How much was age a factor?
A: I poll as many scouts as possible, asking them to give me their individual top 30 lists anonymously. I dump them all into a big spreadsheet and I use an AP poll type format to come up with the rankings. For example, if a scout put Jason Heyward atop his list, he’d get 30 points. Strasburg in 2nd would get 29 points, and on down. The cumulative points is how I rank the players. I’ll break ties and tweak things a little here and there, but I let the scouts’ opinions dictate how things end up for the most part. My only criteria is that a player should still have rookie status entering the season. The rest–age, ceiling, closeness to the big leagues, etc–I leave up to each scout.
Q: You had Domonic Brown rated higher than Michael Taylor…was this because of age, higher ceiling, both?
A: Probably a little bit of both. Not that Taylor is old, mind you, but I think there is an expectation for an advanced college guy to more quickly. There’s no doubt,though, that many feel Brown has a higher ceiling than Taylor. In fact, you probably could argue that Brown has as high a ceiling as almost anyone on the list.
Q: Can Kyle Drabek be a future “ace” or is he a 2/3 in your mind? Was his previous Tommy John surgery a factor?
A: I try not to use the term ace — there are so few true ones out there, right? That being said, I think of Drabek as a strong No. 2, but he does have the mentality/competitiveness to front a rotation. The surgery wasn’t much of a factor,really. So many pitchers have TJ that I don’t think there’s a worry. Besides, Drabek came back better than ever in 2009 and in some ways the year off away from the game may have been great for his mental development and maturity.
Q: The Phillies essentially traded four non-top 50 prospects for Cliff Lee, and then got Phillippe Aumont back (w/ two others) after a great postseason out of Lee. Do you think they did well in the Lee portion of the Halladay trade?
A: I guess time will tell. I think if they were sure they weren’t going to keep Lee, then it wasn’t bad. Some of that evaluation will depend on just what Phillippe Aumont becomes. He still has a very high ceiling as a pitcher, either as a nasty closer or a top-flight starter. If they give him the time to develop as a starter and he fulfills that potential, then that obviously makes the deal better. And I don’t mean to discount Tyson Gillies. I love watching that guy play and he’s going to be a big-leaguer.
Q: How close were a few former BlueClaws: Trevor May, Jason Knapp, Travis d’Arnaud, Anthony Gose. Did lack of time above lo-A hurt them?
A: Hurt them in terms of Top 50 status? No, not really. The one thing I can say possibly is that if it’s a guy who hasn’t been seen all that much by scouts, they’re not going to be rated quite as highly. Of that list, I’d say Gose was probably closest because of the raw tools. If Knapp can stay healthy, he’s the type who’d climb onto a list like this over the next couple of years, I think.
Q: Where do you see the Phillies system today compared to say, June, before all the wheeling and dealing last year?
A: Even with the restocking via the Lee deal, obviously the system took a hit. That being said, it was a pretty good system to begin with, so it’s not like the cupboard is bare. There are still some really interesting players in the system, many of whom you mentioned above. The system is not quite as deep as it once was, but there’s still plenty to like.
Thanks to Mr. Mayo for his help.
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