We’re going to take a shot at projecting the Phillies top ten prospects as ranked by Baseball America, who will unveil their Phillies rankings on Monday. First, a few quick notes on guys that were in the top ten last year that will not be there this year:

• Four of the top ten (Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald) were traded to the Indians in the Cliff Lee deal in July. So obviously they’re out.
• JA Happ was eligible as a prospect last year but is no longer eligible this year after going 12-4. He’s a front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year.
• Last year: 1. Domonic Brown, 2. Carlos Carrasco, 3. Marson, 4. Donald, 5. Kyle Drabek, 6. Michael Taylor, 7. Travis d’Arnaud, 8. Zach Collier, 9. Happ, 10. Knapp, full top 30

So, who are the big movers this year?

• Anthony Gose led all of MiLB in steals and was voted the most exciting prospect in the SAL at age 18 (until August 10th).
• Trevor May was a 4th round pick last year who missed some time in the spring with a back injury. He allowed three earned runs in his last 37 innings with Lakewood and was virtually unhittable at the end of the sesason.
• Sebastian Valle didn’t hit that well first go-around with Lakewood, but was 18, catching two days a week, and mostly DHing. When he went to Williamsport, he was outstanding.
• BJ Rosenberg wasn’t even ranked in the top 30 last year but pitched to an ERA just north of 1 between Lakewood and Reading. One of the rare ones to double-jump and skip Hi-A.
• See a trend? All were key factors on the 2009 SAL Championship BlueClaws club.
• Also should mention Drabek, who was outstanding in his first year after Tommy John Surgery.

Other notes…

• On a media/broadcaster survey done by the Reading Eagle, Brown, Taylor, and Drabek were 1-2-3 in some order on all ballots. It is impossible to forecast anyone else in the top three when the list comes out tomorrow.
• This system was ranked 12th last year by Baseball America…should be higher this year (the top three are all arguably top 30 prospects). And that’s despite trading away four of their better prospects for Cliff Lee.

Onto the projections (this is how we think Baseball America will rank them)…

1. Domonic Brown: missed some time with a finger injury this year, but hit about .285 between Clearwater and Reading at 21 (turned 22 on 9/3). He topped the list last year, no reason to think he won’t again this year.
2. Kyle Drabek: Putting a premium on high level starting pitching. There are only so many potential aces in this game and they’re so valuable. Drabek produced at Clearwater and at Reading and will be 22 on Opening Day.
3. Michael Taylor: Hard to believe he hit .227 in his rookie campaign with Williamsport (2007). All logic says that he will be in the big leagues at some point in 2010 after hitting 20 home runs between Reading and Lehigh Valley.
4. Travis d’Arnaud: Just 20, he didn’t let a .200 first half get to him, had 29 doubles in the second half and got stronger as the year went on playing a demanding position. Trade of Marson confirms him as catcher of the future in the organization and has power to all fields.
5. Trevor May: Again, a premium on pitchers. Big, strong 6-5 righty will have to cut down on his walks but a lot of that was early in the year and he fanned 11 per nine at 19 in the Sally. Takes Knapp’s place as the system’s next big pitching prospect.
6. Anthony Gose: 76 stolen bases speak for themselves. But I thought the best thing that anyone said about Gose was Dusty Wathan’s comment that after the game “You don’t know if he went 0-4 or 4-4.” He’s incredibly poised and already a great defensive player.
7. Sebastian Valle: Might be a little bit of a stretch but realize his early struggles in Lakewood came when he was catching two days a week and primarily the DH. He hit .315 catching every day at Williamsport and just learned the position a few years ago. He’s 19 and will likely be Lakewood’s Opening Day catcher this year.
8. Brody Colvin: Baseball America had him in their top 50 among draft picks last year. The Phillies took him in the 7th round and signed him away from LSU. I’ve never seen him. He’s only thrown one game as a pro. Have heard good things…Note that he’s here because I think Baseball America will put him here. Looking forward to possibly seeing him in Lakewood this season.
9. Antonio Bastardo: 24 year old went 2-2, 1.75 with Reading, his primary spot, but was called up and to Philly and was on the playoff roster for all three rounds this year. Still a little green as he was with Lakewood in 2007, when he went 9-0.
10. Yohan Flande: Lefty went 4-4 with Reading and his strikeouts dropped 7.4 – 6.4 from his time at Clearwater. But he made the Futures Game in his second year in this country. Is just 23. Still upside here.
11. BJ Rosenberg: Bonus pick, was him or Flande. Rosenberg fanned 11 per nine w/ Lakewood and 7 per w/ Reading. But he was basically unhittable with the BlueClaws. Have to figure that he could be in AAA this year and in the bigs not too much after that. He’s 24.

There you go.

Last week we gave you part one of our interview with Matt Forman of Baseball America, who ranked SAL prospects here. That focused on offensive players, and here we’ll look at the pitchers (7. Jason Knapp, 19. Trevor May, NR. BJ Rosenberg) and some general issues and thoughts.

Q: What did you like about Trevor May?

A: I was a little surprised at the consideration he was getting from managers and scouts. There’s not too much of a difference between May and Knapp, with both being big-bodied guys who throw hard. May is a few tickets lower than Knapp (92 vs 95) but they’re similar bodies, arm slot, sinker/slider. The difference might be in May, that’s he’s a little more compact. But I think he was just a buy that really surprised me and everyone else. He wasn’t on anyone’s radar screen, but it’s hard to ignore the performance.

Q: Was BJ Rosenberg close to making the list?

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Baseball America recently put four 2009 BlueClaws among their top 20 South Atlantic League prospects in an annual post-season ranking (see ranking here). We wanted to take you a little bit more in-depth on those player, so we sat down for a Q&A with Matt Forman of Baseball America, who made the list.

We’ll start with the offensive players (13. Anthony Gose, 17. Travis d’Arnaud, NR. Harold Garcia). Next week, we’ll talk about the pitchers.

Q: You were here for Gose’s home run in game one of the finals against Greenville. What was your take on him?

A: I was very impressed. Just reading the scouting reports before I saw him, I thought he was in the Michael Bourn mold. But he’s got more upside than Bourn does…He’s a hard-nosed guy that doesn’t wear batting gloves. He’s got some pop, and plays a shallow center. He can track anything down. His arm is strong. He’s the complete package.

Q: Is there a comparison with a current big leaguer?

A: He’s like Carl Crawford, in that he has the four tools now. For Crawford, the power came later in his career. You think he (Gose) can hit for power down the line, though I’d like to see a little more from him in playing the small ball game. He could wreak havoc with his speed.

Q: What did you see from Travis d’Arnaud?

A: If he were in a more hitter friendly park it wouldn’t surprise me if he hit .275 with 20 home runs. His doubles  number (38, led league) was very impressive. His hands are good and he has a very compact approach…

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Some repeats here from the Florida State League top 20, but Baseball America’s Eastern League top 20 is out and the list features three former BlueClaws (full list here). Domonic Brown and Kyle Drabek repeat, as they were ranked three and five in the FSL List. (write-ups on Drabek and Brown are the same as last time, just switched their numbers…they are ranked in different order here but different people did each ranking…note though, John Manuel did the Eastern League, and he had Brown atop the Phillies list in the off-season, so him moving Drabek up is notable).

3. Kyle Drabek, RHP: Recovering from Tommy John surgery always raises questions, but Drabek answered them all with ease this year. He had a 2.48 ERA and 10.8 Ks/9 with Clearwater and 8-2, 3.64, with 7.8 Ks/9 with Reading. Drabek made the Futures Game this year, was shut down at the end of the year, and didn’t pitch in the Reading post-season. But the year was a smashing success for the 21 year old, who will likely debut at some point in 2010. He was with Lakewood in 2007.

6. Domonic Brown, OF: It raised some eyebrows when Baseball America had him #1 in the Phillies system at the beginning of the year, but not now. He had a great year, hitting .301-11-44 and acquitting himself well (.279-3-20) in 37 games with Reading. He just turned 22 in September and might well be ready for Lehigh Valley when the 2010 season opens. Like the man behind him and Michael Taylor (who will be at or near the top of the Eastern League list), he’s probably among the top 25 or 30 prospects in all of baseball. Was a BlueClaw for the duration of 2008.

9. Michael Taylor, OF: Taylor scalded the ball with Reading, hitting .333-15-65 over the first three months of the season before a promotion to Lehigh Valley. With the IronPigs, he hit .282-5-19 in 30 games and confirmed, as best he could in a short time period, that he could hit at that level. He turns 24 in December and hasn’t debuted yet. He’s under the Phillies control until his 30th birthday.

Previously: Florida State League, South Atlantic League, NY-Penn League, Gulf Coast League

Baseball America continues to rank prospects by league and today’s list dealt with the Florida State League. Three former BlueClaws were on the list, which you can see in full here.

3. Domonic Brown, OF: It raised some eyebrows when Baseball America had him #1 in the Phillies system at the beginning of the year, but not now. He had a great year, hitting .301-11-44 and acquitting himself well (.279-3-20) in 37 games with Reading. He just turned 22 in September and might well be ready for Lehigh Valley when the 2010 season opens. Like the man behind him and Michael Taylor (who will be at or near the top of the Eastern League list), he’s probably among the top 25 or 30 prospects in all of baseball. Was a BlueClaw for the duration of 2008.

5. Kyle Drabek, RHP: Recovering from Tommy John surgery always raises questions, but Drabek answered them all with ease this year. He had a 2.48 ERA and 10.8 Ks/9 with Clearwater and 8-2, 3.64, with 7.8 Ks/9 with Reading. Drabek made the Futures Game this year, was shut down at the end of the year, and didn’t pitch in the Reading post-season. But the year was a smashing success for the 21 year old, who will likely debut at some point in 2010. He was with Lakewood in 2007.

19. Freddy Galvis, SS: He was one of the youngest regulars in the SAL last year, and the 19 year old was one of the youngest in the FSL this year, where he hit .247, up nine points from his BlueClaws season in 2008. The slick fielder hit his first home run with Reading in his first game with the club, where he played briefly at the end of the season. He can field, the question is how fast the bat will come around. But he is a special defensive player. Next year will be interesting for Galvis, playing every day in one of the toughest leagues in the game at just 20 years old, but it won’t be something he hasn’t gone through before.

Previously: South Atlantic League, NY-Penn League, Gulf Cost League

Four BlueClaws appear in Baseball America’s Top 20 South Atlantic League prospect list, released by the publication on Friday (click here). Previously, some future BlueClaws in the NY-Penn League top 20 and the Gulf Cost League top 20. Some thoughts…

4. Jason Knapp, RHP: Obviously no longer with the organization (Cliff Lee trade), but Knapp certainly showed signs of brilliance in his time with Lakewood…went 2-7 because he got no run support, but he fanned 111 in 85 innings…Pitched probably the best game of the Lakewood season, seven shutout on two hits and a franchise record tying 14 Ks against Lake County on April 20th.

“There’s always a guy you don’t hit behind,” said manager Dusty Wathan. “But he kept us in a lot of games and gave us chances to win.”

Knapp recently had shoulder surgery and is expected to be ready for his first Indians spring training.

13. Anthony Gose, OF: Gose led all of Minor League Baseball in stolen bases with 76 despite not turning 19 until August 12th…He hit .259 but seemed to rise up at the right time, such as Gose hitting .407 in the playoffs (and leading off game one of the SALCS with a home run after finishing the regular season 1-25)…He was voted by the league’s managers as the Fastest Baserunner, Most Exciting Prospect, and Best Defensive Outfielder…Thought Dusty summed up Gose well this way:

“You look at him after a game and you don’t know if he went 0-4 or if he went 4-4.”

17. Travis d’Arnaud, C: Really struggled in the first half (.207) but hit .302 after the break with 28 doubles…Was solid definsively all season long and hit .391 in the postseason…He was ranked the 4th best catching prospect in the league, 13 spots behind Derek Norris of Hagerstown, which we felt was too big of a gap. Norris showed excellent power but hit .256 in the second half without a home run after July 29th, while d’Arnaud got stronger over the course of the long season.

“I don’t know if you attribute (his first half) to him trying to pull the ball too much, but he realized he had to make some adjustments and was challenged by Greg Legg and myself,” said Wathan. “And he was outstanding in the second half. When a catcher struggles at the plate, sometimes they take that out on the field, but he never did.”

19. Trevor May, RHP: Began the year in extended with a back injury but went 4-0, 2.06 in the second half, threw 11 scoreless in the playoffs, and finished the year by allowing three earned runs in his last 36 innings…90+ on the fastball with an 11-5 curveball and good changeup, he takes over for Knapp as the big gun among the Phillies young starting pitchers. Certainly could have been higher on this list.

Three Williamsport Crosscutters, and two players who spent part of 2009 with the BlueClaws, were ranked among the top 20 prospects in the New York Penn League by Baseball America (see the list here) in a list that came out today. This is the second of the league lists related to the Phillies (GCL here), and we’ll soon see the South Atlantic League, Florida State League, Eastern League, and International League.

4. Sebastian Valle, C: Split the year between Lakewood (.223) and Williamsport (.307-6-40) but really hit the ball well in the Penn League, where he placed from their season opener in June through September 2nd. Valle didn’t turn 19 until July, and when he struggled in Lakewood, he was an 18 year old against older players. Further, with the BlueClaws, he was only catching once or twice a week, not easy. Valle began catching just two years ago. He’ll likely be in Lakewood next year, catching and hitting clean-up on Opening Day.

11. Anthony Hewitt, 3B: The 24th overall pick in the 2008 draft hit .223-7-30 with Williamsport this year, an improvement over the .197 he hit as a rookie in the GCL. He was always considered a project with a ton of ability. We’ll probably see him in Lakewood in 2010. He’s from Brooklyn and played high school ball in Connecticut, so remember he didn’t get to play nearly as much (weather) growing up as a player from say, California. One scout said about Hewitt last year that if he could hit .250 in the big leagues he’d hit 30 home runs. Will be interesting next year.

16. Leandro Castro, OF: Hit .316-7-43 with Williamsport after hitting .155 with Lakewood (he was sent down on Memorial Day). Was 4th in the league in hitting and 2nd in RBIs. Castro is 20, and a solid defensive outfielder who goes gap-to-gap at the plate. Another who began to thrive when he played every day, which is quite significant. We’ll see him in Lakewood to open 2010 as well, one would think.

In the most recent issue of Baseball America, there is a list compiled of the players with the “Best Tools” in each respective league, and the South Atlantic League list, which contains 21 names, is filled with nine current or former Lakewood BlueClaws players. The list was made by polling each manager in the league:

Best Baserunner: Anthony Gose
Fastest Baserunner: Anthony Gose
Most Exciting Player: Anthony Gose
Best Defensive Outfielder: Anthony Gose
Best Fastball: Jason Knapp
Best Reliever: BJ Rosenberg
Best Defensive Second Baseman: Harold Garcia
Best Defensive Third Baseman: Travis Mattair
Best Managing Prospect: Dusty Wathan

Other “Bests” include Reading’s Michael Taylor as the Eastern League’s Most Exciting Player and Best Batting Prospect.

In January, Baseball America put out their Phillies top ten list, of organizational prospects. We recently took a look back at that list, and now we’ll take a shot at making our own, based on what we know today.

Some background…see Todd Zolecki and Jim Callis of Baseball America take another shot here…Josh Ellis took a shot here, and Greg Giombarrese takes a shot below the fold.

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Here on BlueClaws Blog, Greg Giombarrese has already taken a visit back to the top ten prospects within the Phillies organization as they stood before the season began in April. Now, with the trade deadline having passed, and the bulk of the games played in 2009, its a good time to see how the list of prospects stack up now within the Phillies organization. Here is a reminder of how the top ten looked in April with the year they played in Lakewood.
01. Dominic Brown (2008)
02. Carlos Carrasco (2006) – Traded to Cleveland
03. Lou Marson (2006) – Traded to Cleveland
04. Jason Donald (2007) – Traded to Cleveland
05. Kyle Drabek (2007) – (Pictured)
06. Michael Taylor (2008)
07. Travis D’Arnaud (2008)
08. Zach Collier (2009)
09. JA Happ (2005) – No longer at “prospect” status
10. Jason Knapp (2009) – Traded to Cleveland
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Baseball America’s Phillies top ten prospects list came out in January. Now, with a month left in the season, and the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, let’s take a look back at that list. Later this week, we’ll take a look forward at a potential list for 2010.

List below, our comments in italics.

01. Domonic Brown, OF…called up to Reading after hitting .303 with Clearwater this year…turns 22 on 9/3 and is 7-25 with Reading…Phils wouldn’t put him in the deal for Halladay…Surprised some when put atop this list last year but has justified the ranking…On track to be in bigs in 2011…All-star potential…Ranking was sharp.

02. Carlos Carrasco, RHP…in the deal for Cliff Lee after going 6-9, 5.18 with Lehigh Valley…2-0, 6.23 in two starts with Columbus…Topped this list last two years, but even had he stayed in system, would have fallen to at least four…Still, Ks/9 very good (about 9), didn’t give up that many hits, and 5.18 made it seem he was throwing worse than he was…Inconsistency hurt him, still can be a good big league pitcher…Could help Indians next year.

03. Lou Marson, C…in Cliff Lee deal…got off to terrible start, hitting .230 through May but from June 1st through trade hit .339…Again, would have been passed by Taylor and Drabek but hitting well in first year in AAA…23-year old will have chance to get jump on top Indians prospect C Carlos Santana, and should be September call-up with Victor Martinez traded to Boston.

04. Jason Donald, SS…Another in trade for Cliff Lee…hit .236 with Lehigh Valley, .220 from May 1st through trade…Concerns about his hitting but played hurt most of year, also missed from June 11th through July 28th, when the hitters start to get going…Would have fallen on new list, but he’ll have a chance to be an Indians utility infielder out of camp next year.

05. Kyle Drabek, RHP…One the Phillies obviously wanted to keep…7-2, 3.66 with Reading after tearing up Clearwater…Either he or Brown would be tops on this list if they did it again today…58 Ks in 78.2 innings, lower than his previous ratios, says he needs more time, but he’s only 21…could be Phillies factor sometime in 2010. No issues at all, and he has a chance to be really good…Tommy John surgery helped him mature and tighten his delivery.

06. Michael Taylor, OF…Hit .333-15-65 with Reading and is at .241-3-11 in 23 games with LV, though he started 3-17…turns 24 in December and the Phillies will have a tough time finding a spot for him next year, but he can hit, no question…Phils have chance to have him for six years, into age 30, before he’s a free agent, a major advantage, as he will already be a few years into his prime before he hits free agency, which is why they are in no rush to trade him.

07. Travis D’Arnaud, C…hitting .246-12-58 with Lakewood this year…has shown excellent power in the best pitchers ballpark in the SAL and also was hitting .188 on June 13th, so he’s been on a nice roll for almost two months…he’ll move up this list next year and doesn’t turn 21 until February. Marson trade stamps him as catcher of the future in the organization, and is a big endorsement of his ability.

08. Zach Collier, OF…Sent down to Williamsport after hitting .218 with Lakewood through July 20th…There, he’s hitting .280 with his first pro home run, and is 13 for his last 36…A second year pro, drafted out of high school, in the NY-Penn League is certainly not cause for concern…Would probably be put behind Anthony Gose on this list if done today, however. He’ll likely be back in Lakewood next year.

09. JA Happ, LHP…8-2, 2.74 with Phillies…What can you say? Beat out Chan-Ho Park a few weeks into the season to get into rotation, and then fought off all sorts of Pedro Martinez rumors to hold onto rotation spot…NL Rookie of the Year candidate is no longer prospect eligible, but that Phillies didn’t want to put him in Halladay deal speaks volumes.

10. Jason Knapp, RHP…2-7, 4.01 with Lakewood before trade to Cleveland…Much better than those numbers indicate…He was fanning about 12 per 9 with an opponents BA around .215…Just 18, he can be really good for Cleveland and was reportedly the one they wanted most of the haul they received…He’s pitching Tuesday for Lake County against Augusta.

In conclusion…This list was very well done by John Manuel of Baseball America…There will of course be a few tweaks, and if they did it again today, Knapp would be higher up, and the top three would be Brown, Drabek, and Taylor. But this is not an easy task. We’ll come back with some movers and shakers for the 2010 version later this week.

Jim Callis of Baseball America took the time to speak with BlueClaws blog about a number of topics pertaining to the Phillies minor league teams, here is the Q&A:

BB: How do you see the Phillies system now compared to a few years ago?

JC: It’s a lot deeper than it used to be, both in terms of the talent and how it’s spread through the system. They have several quality prospects in the upper levels (Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson and Jason Donald) and more on the way (Dominic Brown, Jason Knapp, and a slew of other guys they’ve drafted in the last couple of years). We ranked the farm system no higher than 20th at the outset of the 2004-2008 seasons, but we jumped them up to the 12th coming into this year. They’ve definitely making strides.

BB: There is speculation that the Phillies have placed the untouchable tag on Kyle Drabek in regards to a possible Roy Halladay acquisition. Would you go that far if it were your decision?

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Monday, we’ll post a Q&A we did with Jim Callis of Baseball America, talking about the Phillies farm system, including several former BlueClaws players. One key note is using the system to acquire a top-of-the-line starter such as Roy Halladay.

Later this week, we’ll have some time lapse-style photos of the concert set-up, leading up to Dylan, Mellencamp, and Nelson on Thursday night.

JJ Cooper over at Baseball America recently posted a chat and fielded questions on several Phillies prospects, and former BlueClaws players. You can read the entire chat here, but we’ve taken a few snippets.

Dom Brown or Michael Taylor?
I’d still go with Brown because of the age difference (Brown is two years younger), Brown’s better speed and better defense in right. But it’s nitpicking as both are among the top 25 prospects in baseball.

How good of a prospect is Jason Knapp? Better than Jason Donald or Lou Marson?
That seems very fair. There’s always some hesitation about putting a low Class A arm above guys on the cusp of the big leagues, but Knapp’s ceiling is higher than either Marson or Donald. He could end up being a pretty special arm.

On Anthony Hewitt…
He’s a raw hitter who will need time to figure it out if he ever will. The Phillies knew that when they drafted him, so they will be willing to be patient.