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Former BlueClaws Fantasy Baseball Guide

Sunday, March 7th, 2010

Getting ready for your fantasy baseball draft? Back for a second year is the Former BlueClaws Fantasy Baseball Guide, featuring several former BlueClaws that are currently either on a big league roster or in big league camp (click here for list from non-Phillies, click here for Phillies list). Here goes:

  • Ryan Howard: Model of consistency has hit at least 45 home runs and driven in 136 runs over the last four years. Can’t ask for more than that. Probably your third or fourth first baseman with Albert Pujols, Mark Teixeira and Price Fielder right there. Was a BlueClaw in 2002.
  • Cole Hamels: Buster Olney tweeted last week that his big fantasy recommendation was to draft Cole Hamels. He’s been working on a cut fastball with Steve Carlton. We’ll go a little deeper statistically here…last year, his strand % (pct of runners that reach and are left on base) was far lower than it has been (69 vs 76, 77 last two). There are some that believe that a sudden drop or uptick in this stat is luck-related, and if that holds for Hamels, a bounce back would serve him very well. His Ks/9 and Ks/BB were right in line with what he has done historically, good signs for a return to a high-end fantasy starter. Remember, he is only 26 (late-developing lefty theory), and sometimes it’s easy to forget that. We’re buying.
  • JA Happ: Happ, who played in Lakewood in 2005, two years after Hamels, is actually older (Happ pitched three years for Northwestern). The Sporting News Rookie of the Year was very impressive, going 12-4, 2.93 last season, and 7-4, 2.88 in the second half, where he improved his Ks/9 and Ks/BB ratios. How he has a spot given to him in the rotation, which he earned last year, and will not be yo-yo’d in and out of the rotation like he was at times last season. While a sub-3 ERA is probably unrealistic in that ballpark, he is still a valuable fantasy option playing on a very good team and gaining more experience. While some youngsters hit a wall after a big year innings pitched wise, Happ threw 166 last year, which was actually just one less than 2008.
  • Lou Marson: Sometimes lost in the shuffle from the 2006 BlueClaws, Marson remember was sent to Cleveland in the Cliff Lee deal in July and has a chance to be the Opening Day catcher with the Indians this year. FanGraphs has a writeup on Marson from January. Top prospect Carlos Santana hasn’t played above Double-A and had off-season hand surgery, so Marson will have a chance to win the starting job. He’s considered a contact hitter , who hit .246 with the Indians in September. You could take a flyer on him in deep AL only leagues. He’s ready and excited to have a chance.    “Absolutely,” Marson said. “You look and see that they just gave Ruiz that 3-year deal. And he definitely deserves it. He’s done a great job over there. But getting an opportunity here is all I can ask for. Now it’s going to be all up to me and how I perform during spring training.”
  • Carlos Carrasco: A member of the 2006 ‘Claws with Marson, he’s competing for two spots with three others in Goodyear, Arizona at Indians camp. “We do have a number of guys competing for that spot so we’ll have to see how camp takes shape,” Indians AGM Chris Antonetti said. “But we’re very encouraged by what we saw developmentally with him last year when he came over and pitched for us in Columbus. He pitched deep into games a number of different times and showed some really good stuff.” His Ks/BB ratio was almost three last year, and even though he had an 8.87 ERA in September last year with the Tribe, sometimes it pays to be careful off of a very small sample like that. Ron Shandler’s Fantasy Baseball Guide says the upside for Carrasco is: Rookie of the Year. That seems like a stretch. He’s likely to open at AAA, but still keep an eye.
  • Michael Taylor: Obviously, he can hit (stats here). Now, he has a chance to show it at the highest level. That said, he has less than two-months at AAA and probably needs a little more time there before coming up. He is not listed on today’s Athletics depth chart, for what that’s worth. So what does it mean fantasy wise? He’s a late-round buy-low type of player this year with a chance to be very good. The comparisons have been to Jermaine Dye, but it takes some time. I think he’s a safe investment late in a draft, and if you stash him on your bench for a few months, and then keep him into 2011, you could have yourself a real nice player for a few years.
  • Domonic Brown: This was Phillies beat writer David Murphy in a BlueClaws Blog Q&A from before the Winter Meetings: People in the organization we talk to like Domonic Brown. They view him as a future star, a Carl Crawford type impact guy. Brown, of course, is the best prospect left in the system after the Cliff Lee & Roy Halladay trades. Is he ready for the big leagues and your fantasy team just yet? No, he hasn’t yet played an inning in Triple-A. But could he debut late or if there is an injury? Absolutely. Phillies people think he is going to be a star, and if Jayson Werth doesn’t come back, he’s probably why. But from a fantasy perspective in 2010, it’s best to wait, or draft late and stash. His time is coming.

Good luck!

Posted in Carlos Carrasco, Cole Hamels, Domonic Brown, General Baseball, JA Happ, Lou Marson, Michael Taylor, Ryan Howard | No Comments »

Former BlueClaws to Spring Training

Thursday, February 11th, 2010

10springtrainingBelow, the list of all of the former BlueClaws (16 in total) that will participate in big league spring training with the Phillies beginning next week (pitchers and catchers report on February 17th.

Non-roster invitees

  • RHP BJ Rosenberg (2009): the closer for the majority of the 2009 season, he was promoted straight to Double-A Reading in August
  • C Tuffy Gosewisch (2007): a catcher for the majority of 2007, Gosewisch ended 2009 with Triple-A Lehigh Valley and will have a chance to make his big league debut in 2010
  • SS Freddy Galvis (2008): one of the best defensive players in all of Minor League Baseball, Galvis was promoted to Reading to end the 2009 season. He is ranked as the 13th best player in the system according to Baseball America
  • OF Domonic Brown (2008): the top ranked prospect in the system and one of the top ranked prospects in all of baseball. He finished 2009 with Double-A Reading

On the 40-man roster

  • LHP Antonio Bastardo (2007): went 9-0 with the BlueClaws in 2007 and was on the Phillies roster in all three rounds of the 2009 post-season
  • LHP Sergio Escalona (2007-08): spent parts of two seasons in Lakewood and made the jump from Reading to the big leagues in 2009
  • LHP Cole Hamels (2003): had a 0.84 ERA with the BlueClaws in 2003 and won the MVP of the 2008 World Series
  • LHP JA Happ (2005): Won 12 games in his rookie season last year in being named the Sporting News Rookie of the Year
  • RHP Kyle Kendrick (2004-06): spent parts of three years with the BlueClaws before breaking through and into the big leagues during the 2007 season. He is 24-14 over three years with the Phillies
  • Scott Mathieson (2004): trying to make team after having third major surgery including two Tommy John surgeries in recent years. Pitched in the 2009 Arizona Fall League
  • RHP Drew Naylor (2008): spent 2008 in Lakewood and 2009 in Clearwater, where he went 8-11
  • RHP Jesus Sanchez (2009): converted catcher went 10-6 as a pitcher for the BlueClaws during the 2009 championship season
  • LHP Mike Zagurski (2006): popular member of the 2006 championship team in Lakewood, he is recovering from Tommy John surgery and pitched for Reading last year
  • C Carlos Ruiz (2001): an original BlueClaw, he is the only player left from the 2001 BlueClaws still with the Phillies. Has been the starting catcher on two World Series teams
  • 1B Ryan Howard (2002): hit 19 home runs for the 2002 BlueClaws, won Rookie of the Year in 2005 and NL MVP in 2006. He was the first former BlueClaw to appear in the Major Leagues
  • OF Quintin Berry (2007): speedster has stolen over 150 bases the last three years and was added to the 40-man roster in November

Posted in Antonio Bastardo, Around the Farm, BJ Rosenberg, Carlos Ruiz, Cole Hamels, Domonic Brown, Freddy Galvis, JA Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Mike Zagurski, Past BlueClaws, Phillies, Quintin Berry, Ryan Howard, Sergio Escalona, Spring Training, Tuffy Gosewisch | 2 Comments »

Manuel: ‘We owe the Yankees one’

Tuesday, January 26th, 2010

With just 22 days left until pitchers and catchers report to Clearwater, Phillies manager Charlie Manuel met the media today at Citizens Bank Park and let everyone know “We owe the Yankees one.”

Some other selected snippets from the skipper…

Of course, it would have been nice to have Halladay, Lee, Hamels, I’d be looking good. I might be buying more expensive furniture than me and the missus have been buying lately.

I haven’t talked to him at all. I left him a message at Christmas and told him he didn’t have to call back if he was caught up in things. I don’t need to talk to Haladay. I’m just going to give him the ball every five days and tell him to go get them … He likes to pitch. He likes to throw his game. He’s my kind of pitcher.

Lidge and Madson are mentally tough guys. They are not going to go to the trainer or the doctor. That makes me feel good. Both of them can pitch two innings and they will take the ball wherever I want to give it to them.

JA Happ should feel real good about himself. He sits right there in the rotation. He’s going to pitch on a regular basis. He has to pitch himself out of that. He will have to hold his own … Last season was not a fluke. He was a big reason why we got there and won some games. He’s going to be a big part of our rotation.

I’ve always told Hamels, ‘I used to tell you to throw more curveballs. You used to get by’ … I didn’t really push him. If he gets more consistent, he’ll get lefthanded hitters out better. That will make his changeup and his fastball better when he comes inside. Lefthanded hitters have good success off him. That’s one of the big things about his pitching. The big thing is he has to improve his curveball. It doesn’t matter to me if it’s his curveball or if he comes up with a slider.

For the full transcript, click here (David Murphy’s High Cheese blog).

Posted in Cole Hamels, JA Happ, Past BlueClaws, Phillies | No Comments »

Big Day for JA Happ (Update: 2nd place)

Monday, November 16th, 2009

JA Happ, a BlueClaws pitcher in 2005, could today be named National League Rookie of the Year. Logic tells us that Happ, who went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA for the National League Champs, will be in a tough battle with a few others:

  • Pirates OF Andrew McCutchen: .286-12-54
  • Marlins 2B Chris Coghlan: .321-9-47
  • Braves RHP Tommy Hanson: 11-4, 2.89

According to this ESPN.com survey of their analysts, Coghlan is the front-runer with Happ having received only one of 20 votes. Remember, Happ received the Sporting News Rookie of the Year Award, which was voted on by the players. This one is voted on by 32 Baseball Writers.

UPDATE: Happ finishes 2nd to Chris Coghlan (who hit .325 with Greensboro in 2007 and played in Lakewood a few times). Coghlan received 17 of 32 first place votes, with Happ getting ten. Coghlan won 105-94 on total points.

Posted in JA Happ, Past BlueClaws, Phillies | 1 Comment »

Summer in November

Friday, November 13th, 2009

You’ll have to forgive Phillies fans if they feel stuck in July. Roy Halladay to the Phillies rumors are back on the front-burner. Jim Salisbury in the Philadelphia Inquirer:

As in the summer, there are serious hurdles to the Phillies’ pulling off a deal for Halladay. Toronto is looking for a premium package of young, major-league-ready players and prospects. The Phillies balked at the Jays’ request of pitchers Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ and outfielders Domonic Brown and Anthony Gose this summer. If the Jays’ price has come down - and it may have with Halladay due to become a free agent after next season - the Phils might be open to more serious talks. Drabek, as was the case last summer, remains an untouchable.

Our thoughts: To us, the price has come down significantly. There’s no plausible justification to trade that high of a package when you would only have Halladay for one post-season instead of two. Basically, that’s why you’re getting him in the first place. Plus, the Phils would have to clear $15.5 million in payroll space. Remember, last year, it was Halladay OR Cliff Lee, so the increased salary would be offset compared to now since Lee would not have been here too.

So there seem to be some obstacles. I imagine the Phillies will be very careful and likely won’t give up a big package of prospects for what could be a rent-a-player. The only way to make it work and keep the prospects might be to include Cole Hamels (and no more than one of those mentioned above). But that, to us, makes little, if any, sense. Which brings us to:

—

There were thoughts about trading Cole Hamels. Ruben Amaro dismissed those, rightfully. Here’s a great take from Baseball Prospectus.

I know that his ERA jump appears ugly, but bear with me for a minute. At this point, most sabermetricians have learned that a pitcher’s peripheral statistics (strikeout rate, walk rate, and ground-ball rate) are far more persistent and indicative of his true skill level than his BABIP and his home runs per outfield fly ball. Both BABIP and HR/OFFB are far more vulnerable bad luck than K/PA, BB/PA and GB/BIP. Cole Hamels appears to be a victim of this as we look at these sets of numbers for 2008 and 2009.

Posted in Anthony Gose, Domonic Brown, General Baseball, JA Happ, Kyle Drabek, Past BlueClaws, Phillies | 1 Comment »

The Draft

Monday, November 9th, 2009

The MLB amateur draft sometimes gets lost in the shuffle (it’s in the middle of the season, you’ve never heard otf the guys getting drafted save one here or one there), but in reality it’s such an effective way to build your organization.

A quick glance at their highest ranked prospects over the last few years shows the importance the organization puts on the draft, and that they’ve gotten a lot out of the draft the last few years.

  • 2009: Nine of the top ten (save Carlos Carrasco) come out of the draft and three of those nine (plus Carrasco) land the Phillies Cliff Lee…Lou Marson’s trade elevates status of Travis d’Arnaud (another draft pick), plus big years from Anthony Gose and Trevor May from the 2008 draft class.
  • 2008: Nine of the top ten (again, save Carrasco) are draft picks. This top ten includes Adrian Cardenas and Josh Outman, traded later this year for Joe Blanton, and Greg Golson, traded after the season for John Mayberry, Jr.
  • 2007: Eight of the top ten (save Carrasco and Edgar Garcia) are draft picks. In here is Matt Maloney, traded this year for Kyle Lohse, and Michael Bourn, traded after the season for Brad Lidge.

So the Phillies have put a clear premium on the draft in recent years, compared to international free agency. We figure in the Baseball America list, released later today, there’s a decent chance eight of the top ten are draft picks (save Sebastian Valle and Yohan Flande) are draft picks.

Next, look at Phillies core players that were drafted by the team: Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Madson.

Jayson Werth was a bargain free agent, Shane Victorino was acquired in the Rule Five Draft

Posted in Adrian Cardenas, Around the Farm, Carlos Carrasco, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, JA Happ, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, Matt Maloney, Michael Bourn, Phillies, Ryan Howard, Sebastian Valle, Travis d'Arnaud, Trevor May, Yohan Flande | 1 Comment »

Projecting the Top Ten

Sunday, November 8th, 2009

We’re going to take a shot at projecting the Phillies top ten prospects as ranked by Baseball America, who will unveil their Phillies rankings on Monday. First, a few quick notes on guys that were in the top ten last year that will not be there this year:

  • Four of the top ten (Jason Knapp, Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald) were traded to the Indians in the Cliff Lee deal in July. So obviously they’re out.
  • JA Happ was eligible as a prospect last year but is no longer eligible this year after going 12-4. He’s a front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year.
  • Last year: 1. Domonic Brown, 2. Carlos Carrasco, 3. Marson, 4. Donald, 5. Kyle Drabek, 6. Michael Taylor, 7. Travis d’Arnaud, 8. Zach Collier, 9. Happ, 10. Knapp, full top 30

So, who are the big movers this year?

  • Anthony Gose led all of MiLB in steals and was voted the most exciting prospect in the SAL at age 18 (until August 10th).
  • Trevor May was a 4th round pick last year who missed some time in the spring with a back injury. He allowed three earned runs in his last 37 innings with Lakewood and was virtually unhittable at the end of the sesason.
  • Sebastian Valle didn’t hit that well first go-around with Lakewood, but was 18, catching two days a week, and mostly DHing. When he went to Williamsport, he was outstanding.
  • BJ Rosenberg wasn’t even ranked in the top 30 last year but pitched to an ERA just north of 1 between Lakewood and Reading. One of the rare ones to double-jump and skip Hi-A.
  • See a trend? All were key factors on the 2009 SAL Championship BlueClaws club.
  • Also should mention Drabek, who was outstanding in his first year after Tommy John Surgery.

Other notes…

  • On a media/broadcaster survey done by the Reading Eagle, Brown, Taylor, and Drabek were 1-2-3 in some order on all ballots. It is impossible to forecast anyone else in the top three when the list comes out tomorrow.
  • This system was ranked 12th last year by Baseball America…should be higher this year (the top three are all arguably top 30 prospects). And that’s despite trading away four of their better prospects for Cliff Lee.

Onto the projections (this is how we think Baseball America will rank them)…

  1. Domonic Brown: missed some time with a finger injury this year, but hit about .285 between Clearwater and Reading at 21 (turned 22 on 9/3). He topped the list last year, no reason to think he won’t again this year.
  2. Kyle Drabek: Putting a premium on high level starting pitching. There are only so many potential aces in this game and they’re so valuable. Drabek produced at Clearwater and at Reading and will be 22 on Opening Day.
  3. Michael Taylor: Hard to believe he hit .227 in his rookie campaign with Williamsport (2007). All logic says that he will be in the big leagues at some point in 2010 after hitting 20 home runs between Reading and Lehigh Valley.
  4. Travis d’Arnaud: Just 20, he didn’t let a .200 first half get to him, had 29 doubles in the second half and got stronger as the year went on playing a demanding position. Trade of Marson confirms him as catcher of the future in the organization and has power to all fields.
  5. Trevor May: Again, a premium on pitchers. Big, strong 6-5 righty will have to cut down on his walks but a lot of that was early in the year and he fanned 11 per nine at 19 in the Sally. Takes Knapp’s place as the system’s next big pitching prospect.
  6. Anthony Gose: 76 stolen bases speak for themselves. But I thought the best thing that anyone said about Gose was Dusty Wathan’s comment that after the game “You don’t know if he went 0-4 or 4-4.” He’s incredibly poised and already a great defensive player.
  7. Sebastian Valle: Might be a little bit of a stretch but realize his early struggles in Lakewood came when he was catching two days a week and primarily the DH. He hit .315 catching every day at Williamsport and just learned the position a few years ago. He’s 19 and will likely be Lakewood’s Opening Day catcher this year.
  8. Brody Colvin: Baseball America had him in their top 50 among draft picks last year. The Phillies took him in the 7th round and signed him away from LSU. I’ve never seen him. He’s only thrown one game as a pro. Have heard good things…Note that he’s here because I think Baseball America will put him here. Looking forward to possibly seeing him in Lakewood this season.
  9. Antonio Bastardo: 24 year old went 2-2, 1.75 with Reading, his primary spot, but was called up and to Philly and was on the playoff roster for all three rounds this year. Still a little green as he was with Lakewood in 2007, when he went 9-0.
  10. Yohan Flande: Lefty went 4-4 with Reading and his strikeouts dropped 7.4 - 6.4 from his time at Clearwater. But he made the Futures Game in his second year in this country. Is just 23. Still upside here.
  11. BJ Rosenberg: Bonus pick, was him or Flande. Rosenberg fanned 11 per nine w/ Lakewood and 7 per w/ Reading. But he was basically unhittable with the BlueClaws. Have to figure that he could be in AAA this year and in the bigs not too much after that. He’s 24.

There you go.

Posted in Anthony Gose, Antonio Bastardo, Around the Farm, BJ Rosenberg, Baseball America, Brody Colvin, Carlos Carrasco, JA Happ, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, Kyle Drabek, Lou Marson, Michael Taylor, Past BlueClaws, Sebastian Valle, Travis d'Arnaud, Trevor May, Yohan Flande | 2 Comments »

Five Former ‘Claws on World Series Roster

Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

When the Phillies get introduced at about 7:40 before game one of the World Series, there will be five former BlueClaws that get the call, and two will be in the starting lineup tonight.

  • Ryan Howard (2002): Coming off his NLCS MVP, Howard enters the World Series with a .355 post-season batting average and 14 RBIs in the nine playoff games.
  • Carlos Ruiz (2001): One of the first BlueClaws catchers, Ruiz hit a big home run in game one of the NLCS and has made a big impact in each of his first two post-seasons.
  • Cole Hamels (2003): It hasn’t been the best post-season, or season, for the lefty, but he did win the World Series MVP last year and is certainly capable. He’s on track to start game six or game seven should this go that far.
  • JA Happ (2005): The lefty went 12-4 this year and was named, by his peers, NL Rookie of the Year in a Sporting News survey. Should the Phillies use four starters (and since Pedro is unlikely to throw on three days rest, they probably will), Happ figures to be that guy. But in games one and two, he’s a late-inning lefty for Hideki Matsui or Johnny Damon.
  • Antonio Bastardo (2007): He went 9-0 with the BlueClaws in 2007 and was pitching in Instructs a week before the playoffs began. He’s only faced two hitters in the post-season, striking out Jason Giambi in the DS and allowing a double to James Loney in the CS.

Other Phillies that BlueClaws fans have seen at FirstEnergy Park:

  • Pedro Martinez: threw a bullpen session here in August
  • Brett Myers: threw a scoreless inning in a rehab appearance in August, the same day the BlueClaws hit 4-million fans
  • Greg Dobbs: Went 1-3 in game one of the SAL Championship Series on a rehab appearance with Lakewood.
  • Shane Victorino: Rehabbed in Lakewood in August, 2007.

Posted in Antonio Bastardo, Carlos Ruiz, Cole Hamels, JA Happ, Past BlueClaws, Phillies, Ryan Howard | 3 Comments »

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